David Firth FBA (* 22. Dezember 1957) ist ein britischer Statistiker . [ 1 ] Er ist emeritierter Professor am Institut für Statistik der Universität Warwick . [ 1 ]

Ausbildung

Firth wurde in Wakefield geboren und ging dort zur Schule . [ 1 ] Er studierte Mathematik an der Universität Cambridge [ 1 ] und promovierte in Statistik am Imperial College London [ 1 ] unter der Betreuung von Sir David Cox . [ 2 ]

Forschung

Firth is known for his development of a general method[3] for reducing the bias of maximum likelihood estimation in parametric statistical models. The method has seen application in a wide variety of research fields, especially with logistic regression analysis where the reduced-bias estimates also have reduced variance and are always finite;[5] the latter property overcomes the frequently encountered problem of separation, which causes maximum likelihood estimates to be infinite. The original paper published in 1993[3] has been cited more than 4000 times according to Google Scholar.

Together with a PhD student, Renée de Menezes, Firth also established the generality of the method of quasi variances, a device for summarizing economically the estimated effects of a categorical predictor variable in a statistical model.[7][8]

Applied work

Firth developed (in collaboration with John Curtice) a new statistical approach to the design and analysis of election-day exit polls for UK General Elections. The new methods have been used at UK General Elections since 2005 to produce the widely broadcast close-of-polls forecast of seats in the House of Commons.[6]

Awards and honours

Firth was elected as a Fellow of the British Academy in 2008. He was the recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's Guy Medal in Bronze in 1998 and in Silver in 2012. With Dr Heather Turner he won the John M Chambers Statistical Software Award of the American Statistical Association in 2007, for the gnm package which facilitates working with generalized nonlinear models (a synthesis of nonlinear regression and generalized linear models) in R.

He is a former Editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Statistical Methodology).

References

  1. ^ abcdefghijklmno"FIRTH, Prof. David". Who's Who. Vol. 2022 (online Oxford University Press ed.). A & C Black.(Abonnement oder Mitgliedschaft in einer öffentlichen Bibliothek in Großbritannien erforderlich.)
  2. ^ a b David Firth beim Mathematics Genealogy Project
  3. ^ a b c Firth, David (1993). „Bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates“. Biometrika . 80 (1): 27– 38. doi : 10.2307/2336755 . JSTOR 2336755 . 
  4. ^ Kosmidis, Ioannis; Firth, David (2009). „Bias reduction in exponential-family nonlinear models“. Biometrika . 96 (4): 793– 804. doi : 10.1093/biomet/asp055 .
  5. ^ a b Kosmidis, Ioannis; Firth, David (2021). „Jeffreys-Prior-Regularisierung, Endlichkeit und Schrumpfung in verallgemeinerten linearen Modellen mit Binomialantwort“ . Biometrika . 108 (1): 71–81 . arXiv : 1812.01938 . doi : 10.1093/biomet/asaa052 .
  6. ^ a b Curtice, John; Firth, David (2008). „Exit polling in a cold climate: The BBC/ITV experience in Britain in 2005 (with discussion)“ . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society) . 171 : 509–539 . doi : 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00536.x . S2CID 16758864 . 
  7. ^ a b Firth, David (2003). „Überwindung des Referenzkategorienproblems bei der Darstellung statistischer Modelle“. Sociological Methodology . 33 : 1–18 . doi : 10.1111/j.0081-1750.2003.t01-1-00125.x . S2CID 120695908 . 
  8. ^ a b Firth, David; de Menezes, Renée (2004). „Quasi-Varianzen“ . Biometrie . 91 (1): 65–80 . doi : 10.1093/biomet/91.1.65 .